Majority of economists polled put the possibility of a eurozone break-up at 30%-40%. The poll also found that most economists expect UK interest rates to remain at 0.5% throughout next year. Of the 27 who responded, 25 forecast recession for Europe next year.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
December Low for British Pound
It has been a range month for the GBPUSD between primarily 15400 and 15750. The drop to a monthly low today sets sights on the October low at 15270 but respect potential for additional range action between the current level and the mentioned 15750. The current environment is not conducive to breakouts although that may change next week.
Gold Near A Bear Market
Gold, on the brink of a bear market, posted the longest slump since March 2009 as gains in the dollar reduced demand for precious metals as alternative assets.
Oil Volatility Declines on Supply
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Oil options volatility fell as the underlying futures dropped after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. inventories increased last week.
Euro At Risk; Hits 15 Month Low
NEW YORK—The euro hit a 15-month low against the dollar in the penultimate trading day of 2011, as Europe's festering sovereign debt problems continued to wear away at investors' confidence.
Treasury returns outpace corporate bonds
| TREASURYS | CORPORATE | HIGH YIELD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | +13.98% | -6.82% | -26.4% |
| 2009 | -3.72% | +19.76% | +57.5% |
| 2010 | +5.88% | +9.52% | +15.2% |
| 2011 | +9.61% | +7.22% | +4.16% |
“We’re trying to stay pretty cautious and close to the vest, just not in flight-to-quality Treasurys because there are risks there” regarding the U.S. fiscal imbalances and the “dysfunctional political system,” said Jason Brady, who helps oversee about $4 billion in fixed-income assets at Thornburg Investment Management.
Grains fall
March corn fell 4.50 cents to $6.38 a bushel
Natural Gas Futures Plunge: $3/MMBtu Now In Sight
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures plunged to two-year lows Thursday, nearly breaching a major psychological price threshold, as a series of government reports illustrated dismal demand for the fuel in the face of surging supply.
Currency and Metals Outlook
The dollar index fell back from its recent 11-1/4 month high after the ECB lent a record amount in 3-year loans to European banks to avert a liquidity crisis. EURUSD rebounded back above $1.30 on short covering, while USDJPY slipped to a 3-week low.
Four currency moves for 2012
The U.S. dollar benefits as global investors continue to seek out liquidity — not credit quality, as the report notes — and it remains the “preferred world reserve currency,” as even gold has retreated as an alternative safe-haven.
Sempra's Bid To Corner Brent Crude
Speculators and traders have tried to corner the commodities markets since futures trading began thousands of years ago. In my blogs I am posting from time to time a selection of notable or high-profile trading plays.
Black gold
In 2002, US energy trader Sempra snapped up almost an entire month's Brent crude oil programme after carrying out a huge exchange-for-physical (EFP) trade, under which it swapped Brent futures for forward contracts that delivered oil. Most of the crude was shipped to China. Sempra's was one of the last classic short squeezes in the North Sea Brent market before pricing agency Platts introduced additional types of crude into its benchmark methodology, making it all but impossible for a single trader to buy an entire month's worth of crude.
Jim Rogers Likes Agriculture
Jim Rogers: “If I were buying anything I’d be buying agricultural commodities,” he says. “Going forward we’re going to have huge shortages of everything – including farmers – I think ag will be a great place for the next 10-20 years,” he says.
Top 10 Eurozone stories
The business year in 2011 was dominated by the eurozone debt crisis – with live blogs accounting for five of our top 10 most-read business stories.
Soros Sees Gold Bubble
George Soros, the billionaire who two years ago called it the "ultimate asset bubble," cut 99 percent of his holdings in the first quarter, Securities and Exchange Commission data show. Hedge fund managers John Paulson, Paul Touradji and Eric Mindich also sold bullion this year.
Italy's yields should ease
(Reuters) - Italian bond yields are expected to fall from recent record highs in an auction on Thursday in a sign the European Central Bank has managed to ease market pressure, at least for now, with its big injection of longer-term funds earlier this month.
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