The European Union is bracing for another potential energy crisis in the dead of winter as Russian gas supplies to some member states have suddenly dwindled by up to 30 per cent. The European Commission put its gas coordination committee on alert on Friday, but insisted the situation had not yet reached an emergency level as nations have pledged to help each other if needed and storage facilities have been upgraded.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Is the EU set up for a natural gas crisis this winter?
The European Union is bracing for another potential energy crisis in the dead of winter as Russian gas supplies to some member states have suddenly dwindled by up to 30 per cent. The European Commission put its gas coordination committee on alert on Friday, but insisted the situation had not yet reached an emergency level as nations have pledged to help each other if needed and storage facilities have been upgraded.
The MIA board members of MF Global: Here's a list and profiles
So who sat on the board of MF Global, who seemed to disregard warnings by risk managers that MF was over leveraged? Here is the list:
Jon Corzine
Chairman and CEO
MF Global Holdings Ltd.
*David P. Bolger
Former EVP and CFO
Aon Corporation
*Eileen S. Fusco
Retired Senior Partner
Deloitte & Touche LLP
*David Gelber
Retired Director and COO
ICAP plc
*Martin J. Glynn
Retired CEO
HSBC Bank USA and Chairman HSBC Bank Canada
Edward L. Goldberg
Managing Member
Longview Investments, LLC
*David I. Schamis
Managing Director
J.C. Flowers & Co. LLC
Robert S. Sloan
Managing Partner
S3 Partners, LLC
*Members of the Audit and Risk Committee; Fusco was the Chair
Looking for a spike in volatility? Look at the short strangle swap to exploit it
Question: How do you exploit an expected spike in volatility when you feel it will be only temporary? Answer: Execute a short strangle swap.
The number of bullish futures bets expanding fastontracts
Bets on Raw Materials Expanding Fastest Since 2006: Commodities - Bloomberg
Investments in commodities are expanding at the quickest pace in six years on signs of rising economic growth, even as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warn that some prices have rallied too fast. The number of futures contracts on 24 commodities from oil to copper rose 9.3 percent last month, the most since January 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Speculators are the most bullish since November, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Gold and silver had the best start to a year since 1983, orange juice posted its biggest rally in more than three decades, the LMEX gauge of six industrial metals rose the most since 2006, and cattle futures advanced to a record.
Investments in commodities are expanding at the quickest pace in six years on signs of rising economic growth, even as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warn that some prices have rallied too fast. The number of futures contracts on 24 commodities from oil to copper rose 9.3 percent last month, the most since January 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Speculators are the most bullish since November, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Gold and silver had the best start to a year since 1983, orange juice posted its biggest rally in more than three decades, the LMEX gauge of six industrial metals rose the most since 2006, and cattle futures advanced to a record.
Cargill says population growth means food prices won't always fall
The era of food prices always falling has come to an end with the world population set to add another 2 billion people, according to Cargill Inc., the U.S. farm commodities trader. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization has said global food output must rise 70 percent by 2050 to feed a world population expected to grow to 9 billion from 7 billion now and as increasingly wealthy consumers in developing economies eat more meat. Food prices tracked by the FAO climbed to the highest ever a year ago on surging grain prices.
Supply glut leads natural gas to settle down 2.2% at $2.499/mm Btu
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural-gas futures prices settled 2.2% lower Friday at $2.499 per million British thermal units on expectations that near-term weather won't spark enough demand to dent a huge supply glut. Prices shed 6.7% in the week, despite a 7.2% rally on Thursday after a larger-than-expected drawdown in natural-gas inventories.
Risk on after Fed. move
Feb 3 (Reuters) - Investors' appetite for yield and risk-taking drove interest into high-yield "junk" bond funds and emerging markets equities in the week ended Wednesday, Feb. 1, bolstered by the Federal Reserve's announcement of near-zero interest rates into late 2014, data from EPFR Global showed on Friday. Emerging Markets equity funds rounded out a month when they recorded inflows every single day by taking in another $3.5 billion in the latest week, taking their monthly and year-to-date total to $11.3 billion.
Supply data lifts natural gas futures
AHMEDABAD (Commodity Online): Natural Gas Prices at MCX climbed more than 5 percent in yesterday session after the government said the nation’s supplies shrank last week. Gas supplies dropped by 132 billion cubic feet last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. The decline was more than analysts expected, but the overall storage level of 2.97 trillion cubic feet remains well above five-year levels for this time of year.
No Ch. 7 liquidation for MF Global
(Reuters) - The judge overseeing MF Global Holdings Ltd's (MFGLQ.PK) bankruptcy rejected requests by some former customers to convert the case to a Chapter 7 liquidation or conduct their own probe into the futures and commodities brokerage's sudden collapse. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Martin Glenn in Manhattan cited the potential cost to creditors and disruption of several federal investigations in setting aside the request by three commodity customers led by Sapere Wealth Management LLC.
Irresistible contrarian forex trade of the year— EUR/JPY
Traders always start with two key choices in selecting trade direction. They can join the crowd, or they can take a contrarian approach. With more than $4 trillion traded each day, the price direction reflects a collective opinion with a great deal of money behind it. On the other hand, the crowd can be, and often is, caught by surprise. Economic data releases often diverge from expectations, thereby moving the market. Since the financial collapse in 2008, getting it wrong on debt exposure, global growth and the U.S. economy has become the new normal. The result of this wrong information is headline-driven panic reversals, leaving those who join too late with great losses. In contrast, the contrarian point of view is based on the premise to expect the unexpected. The contrarian mind-set is one that points to price action as prone to information shocks and not efficient. Another key concept underlying contrarian trading is that extreme price action will revert back to a mean. Of course, the trick is pinpointing when a price action technically is extreme, likely to be temporary as well as timing the trade. Detecting contrarian opportunities is a major challenge for the trader. As 2012 begins, there is one irresistible contrarian opportunity — trading the EUR/JPY.
2011's top 25 people and events
2011 was the year of people power; whether it was the Arab Spring, Occupy Wall Street, recall elections or MF Global customers fighting against the big banks, people demanded to be heard and called for change. Here’s our second annual selection of who and what we saw as the most influencial shapers of events and trends in 2011.
EVENTS
MF GLOBAL BANKRUPTCY. The eighth largest futures commission merchant and eighth largest bankruptcy of all time shook our industry to its core.
DEBT CEILING DEBATE. If there was one issue that showcased how polarized American politics have become, it was the debate over raising the debt ceiling. Washington’s handling of the situation even prompted S&P to downgrade U.S. debt.
EUROZONE DEBT CRISIS. What began in Greece quickly spread throughout the Eurozone. Rather than staying confined to the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) now even Germany and France are feeling the pain.
OCCUPY MOVEMENT. Some may say this movement petered out with the onset of cold weather, but despite all its warts it’s hard to argue with the overall premise behind it — people are struggling in the global economy and those that caused this crisis, the richest 1%, have not been held accountable and actually have been subsidized by the rest of us. As long as that remains true, the movement will not go away.
January closes with Dollar Index above support
The greenback was slightly softer at the close of North American trade on Monday with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) off by a fractional 0.9% on the session. Risk appetite quickly subsided at the open after weaker-than-expected US economic data saw risk assets come off sharply as the dollar pulled back above key support at 9755. Weakness in the housing market continues to loom over the economy with Tuesday's Case-Shiller home price report showing that home prices had fallen 3.67% y/y in November, topping expectations for a decline of 3.30% y/y. Consumer confidence data followed with the January print grossly missing consensus estimates with a print of 61.1, down from a previous read of 64.8. Markets were anticipating an 11-month high print of 68.0 for the month of January. US equity markets promptly reversed gains with the major indices closing mixed on the session after spending the bulk of the day paring losses with the Dow and the S&P off by 0.16% and 0.05% while the NASDAQ eked out a marginal gain of 0.07%.
Dogs of the Dow lag in January
I don't wanna hit the groundhog. At the beginning of every year a lot of fuss is always made over the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy. While some market know–it–alls discount the Dogs strategy as a complete myth, there is no discounting the fact that this strategy is widely followed.
Stock indexes stuck between support and resistance
Thursday was not a particularly exciting day for the market. Volume was on the light side and the session was caught between the larger intraday time frame support and resistance levels I discussed in yesterday's column. The day kicked off after a pullback in premarket trade landed the indices at support from premarket congestion Wednesday morning (as shown on the 15 minute charts). This support zone held well and continued to do so even when the indices retested the level mid-day on Thursday. Prior to that, however, the market attempted a recovery. After hitting lows around 7:45 a.m. ET, the indices continued higher past the 10:00 a.m. ET economic data and into the 11:00 a.m. ET correction period. The Nasdaq ($COMPX) once again served as the relative strength leader, but the pace of the strength began to diminish as the morning wore on.
S&P hanging below short-term high
Traders wait as S&P hovers below short-term high - Financials - Futures Magazine
Market Overview – What We Know:
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Major indexes closed mixed Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was slightly negative while S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Value Line index were a little positive.
- Short and Intermediate-term trends remain positive, but “Overbought.”
- Selling in S&P 500 below lower edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1307.49—Friday) would suggest beginning of end of Minor Cycle advance underway since mid-December.
- Short-term Momentum in S&P 500 remains slightly positive and has failed to confirm any of strength in index since December 19 lows. Indicator could easily fall into negative territory.
- Cumulative Volume (CV) in S&P 500 remains above late October resistance highs, but S&P Emini CV has yet to break above same late October resistance.
- Daily MAAD was positive Thursday with 11 issues positive and 4 lower. Added strength in MAAD pushed indicator on Minor Cycle to new short-term high.
- Daily CPFL was positive Thursday for eighth session in row (1.95 to 1) but has confirmed none of strength since October lows.
Note to aspiring copper thieves - copper is a great conducter of HIGH VOLTAGE power!
HUNTINGTON -- When it comes to theft of copper and other metals, it's all a matter of money. There's the money the thief might get if he or she manages to sell the stolen wire or pipe. There's also the money the business or homeowner will spend to replace or repair the damage, which often is far, far more than what the stolen copper was worth.
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