Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Bullish commodities futures rose above 1 million contracts for the first time in five months as U.S. growth prospects improved and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted further price gains.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Futures Bulls Exceed 1M Contracts
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Bullish commodities futures rose above 1 million contracts for the first time in five months as U.S. growth prospects improved and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted further price gains.
Technical Report on EUR/USD
EUR/USD: The latest break and daily close above 1.3325 ends a recent bout of multi-session consolidation and now opens the door for the next upside extension towards the 1.3600-1.3700 area over the coming days. While our broader outlook remains aggressively bearish with a downside target by 1.2000 in 2012, the 2012 correction within the broader downtrend off of the 2008 record highs is still in play, and shows potential for additional gains. Still, we prefer to remain sidelined as our bearish bias has us looking for opportunities to sell rather than attempting to buy into a corrective rally within a broader downtrend. We would also not rule out the possibility for a topside failure well ahead of 1.3600-1.3700, but given the latest break, the risk for additional gains seems like a very real possibility that needs to be considered and anticipated. Back under 1.3230 will be required at a minimum to alleviate immediate topside pressures.
Treasury Bonds: Still A Safe Haven
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose, with 30-year bonds halting a three-week slide, amid concern Europe’s rescue package for Greece won’t fully resolve the region’s sovereign-debt crisis. U.S. 10-year yields reached the lowest in a week yesterday as Fitch Ratings lowered Greece’s credit rating and said a default is highly likely, fueling refuge demand. The U.S. sold $99 billion in notes while the Federal Reserve bought $3.8 billion in longer-term Treasuries. The difference between the yields on 10-year notes and inflation-indexed securities was close to the highest since August before a report that is forecast to show U.S. manufacturing output expanded in February.
Warren Buffett's 2012 Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders.pdf - Google Docs
Warren Buffett's annual letter to shareholders is much anticipated by his followers around the world. If you are not an investor in his company Berkshire Hathaway, it's a great way to keep up with his latest thinking and his long-held views.
Warren Buffett Admits He Was Dead Wrong On Housing Market
OMAHA, Neb. — Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Saturday that he was "dead wrong" with a prediction that the U.S. housing market would begin to recover by now, but he remains optimistic about the nation's economy. In his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett said he is sure housing will recover eventually and help bring down the nation's unemployment rate. But he did not predict when that will happen.
Greek Bond Swap Great for London
Agreed, we’re all just waiting now to see how the Greek bailout is going to fail and when. The whether is, for most of at least, already assumed. But there’s an interesting little coda to the whole story. The vast majority of the bonds in issue were issued under Greek law. Last week the Parliament changed the law about those bonds. The Collective Action Clauses (ie, what percentage of the bonds do we have to get to agree to something to make it a voluntary agreement) were changed. Yes, governments can do this: when they find that their own laws preclude them from doing something they’d like to do then they can and indeed sometimes do go and change those pesky laws.
FX Volatility Concerns G-20
MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones) -- Although the Group of 20 industrialized and developing economies are likely to express concern about recent volatility in currency markets in an official statement due out Sunday, senior officials say foreign exchange hasn't been a major topic of their discussions. Unlike previous meetings of the G-20, finance ministers and central bankers haven't yet spent much time, if any, discussing the Chinese yuan or the Japanese yen. That's at odds with the tenor of previous G-20 meetings, including at the last summit in Cannes, where the value of both currencies has previously become the subject of attention and controversy. The G-20 has consistently urged Beijing to appreciate the yuan at a faster rate, irritated about the currency policy undermining trade. Officials have also raised questions about Tokyo's intervention to prevent the yen from strengthening. Instead, G-20 this week has largely been consumed with solving Europe's debt crisis that threatens to spark a global financial meltdown and halt a fragile economic recovery.
Euro Gains on Greek Bailout
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose against a majority of its most-traded counterparts as an agreement on a second international bailout for Greece reduced investor concern the region’s debt crisis will worsen. The 17-nation currency reached a three-month high against the yen this week and broke through key technical levels against its Japanese and U.S. peers. The dollar dropped against its higher-yielding counterparts as reports showed an improving economic recovery, damping demand for safety. Currencies of commodity-exporting countries rallied as oil surged and volatility fell to a three-year low. The European Central Bank will offer banks unlimited three-year loans next week.
Higher demand turns copper traders bullish
Copper traders are the most bullish in two months on speculation that demand will strengthen from the United States to China at a time when stockpiles monitored by the world's biggest metals exchange are at a 2 1/2-year low. Fourteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to gain this week and 10 were neutral, the highest proportion since Dec. 23. Inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange are set for a fifth consecutive monthly drop and money managers have their biggest bet on rising prices since August, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
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