For some Buffett’s touch is still golden; For others it wasn't the best of years

For some Buffett’s touch is still golden - MarketWatch First Take - MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — 2011 wasn’t the best of years for Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or its shareholders. But the executives at the portfolio companies? Well, they can take everyone in Omaha to lunch at Dairy Queen — every day for years.

Green Ashes and Black Swans --The Alan Greenspan Legacy

Black Swan Events - Is the US Economy Safe - The Cutting Edge News

 Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his brilliant irreverent book The Black Swan, published in 2007, contends that the world only changes during these events. According to Taleb a Black Swan event has three attributes: (1) It is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. (2) It carries an extreme impact. (3) In spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.


Taleb makes the case that most “experts” believe we live in a normal distribution world, when the world is really dominated by Black Swan events. These are events that should occur rarely in the long tail of the normal distribution curve. We have experienced five Black Swan events in ten years.

• 1998  Long Term Capital Management
• 2000  Dot Com Bubble
• 2001  9/11 Attack
• 2005  Housing Bubble
• 2008  Financial Implosion

For some Buffett’s touch is still golden

For some Buffett’s touch is still golden - MarketWatch First Take - MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — 2011 wasn’t the best of years for Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or its shareholders. But the executives at the portfolio companies? Well, they can take everyone in Omaha to lunch at Dairy Queen — every day for years.

New stock market highs by fall?

New stock market highs by fall - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The stock market could be trading at new all-time highs by the end of this summer.  Have a hard timing accepting that possibility?

Mixing gasoline and politics; A recipe for volatility in the oil pit

Mixing gasoline and politics - MarketWatch First Take - MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Nothing burns your average American consumer like rising gasoline prices. And these days they have plenty to fume about.According to the AAA Fuel Gauge,    prices have jumped a whopping 18% since December. The national average for a gallon of regular now stands at $3.83. Much of the country is paying more. The price in California is now $4.36 a gallon. New Yorkers are paying $4.08, Chicagoans $4.28.

The end of the gold bull is on the horizon

The end of the gold bull is on the horizon - Howard Gold's No-Nonsense Investing - MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The last decade has been a bonanza for investors smart or lucky enough to buy gold. From their April 2001 low of $256 an ounce, gold prices soared 640% to their September 2011 peak. While large U.S. stocks slogged through a lost decade, gold returned 21% a year.

Don’t get mad at high gasoline prices; get a piece of the action

How $100-plus oil can prime your portfolio - Weekend Investor - MarketWatch

Many stock-market strategists believe the energy sector will be among the best places to invest this year. With oil topping $100 a barrel, investors have a deep well of possibilities.  Energy stocks with the most bullish ratings from analysts are a logical starting point for investors looking to counteract the sting from pricier crude oil and $4-a-gallon retail gasoline prices in the U.S.

Natural gas: Is it the energy market’s best bargain?

Natural gas: U.S. energy market’s best bargain? - Commodities Corner - MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — For those who follow the natural-gas markets, it was no shock to see the commodity fall to its lowest level in a decade, but prices may finally be nearing a bottom as production levels continue to slow.  “Gas is more than a bargain. It is not sustainable at this price,” said James Williams, an energy economist at WTRG Economics. “The question isn’t whether prices will rise, but when.”

Oil tops $107, but down on the week

Oil tops $107 but notches weekly loss - Futures Movers - MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil prices climbed Friday, with the dollar-denominated commodity finding support from a downturn in the greenback, with the move also allowing futures to cut into their weekly loss.

Gold futures down 3.3% on the week

Gold futures fall, log a weekly loss of 3.3% - Metals Stocks - MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures fell Friday, logging a weekly loss of 3.3% as mostly upbeat U.S. economic data during the week dulled demand for the metal, but the first drop in consumer sentiment since August and concerns about inflation helped limit declines.

March 13, 2012 Current Commitments of Traders Charts

Current Commitments of Traders Charts

Based on CFTC weekly report.
(Weekly as of October 2000.)
15 Mar 11 - 13 Mar 12

Treasury Bonds Suffer Biggest Weekly Selloff Since July

Treasury Bonds Suffer Biggest Weekly Selloff Since July - WSJ.com

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Out of the most turbulent week so far of 2012, the Treasury bond market was hit by the biggest five-day selloff in eight months.  The benchmark 10-year note's yield, a key rate for the U.S. to borrow in capital markets, rose to as high as 2.363% earlier Friday, the highest level since late October. The yield jumped by about 27 basis points this week, the most on a weekly basis since July.

Gold Bulls Playing a Weak Hand

Gold Bulls Weakest in Two Months as Economy Gains: Commodities - Bloomberg

Gold traders are the least bullish in two months after prices erased more than half of this year’s gain on speculation that a strengthening U.S. economy will dissuade the Federal Reserve from buying more debt.
Thirteen of 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and four were neutral, the lowest proportion since Jan. 20. Hedge funds cut bets on a rally by the most since August 2008 in the week ended March 6, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Prices fell to an eight-week low March 14, 15 percent below September’s record, and are now below the 200- day moving average, a sign of more declines to some investors.

U.S. Corn, Wheat Planting to Rise, Soy to Fall

U.S. Corn, Wheat Planting to Rise, Soy Will Fall, Allendale Says - Bloomberg
 
U.S. farmers will plant more corn and fewer acres of soybeans than the government forecast last month, according to a survey of growers by Allendale Inc. Wheat planting will rise for a second consecutive year, it said.  Farmers indicated they will sow 95.012 million acres with corn, Allendale said today in an e-mailed release. That’s up from last year’s 91.921 million acres and above the 94 million that the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast on Feb. 24.

More market volatility expected

Dan Gramza: Market volatility expected

Volatility jumps in tandem with stock price crashes, spiking whenever the stock market collapses. Expected volatility, thus, serves as a proxy for market risk.

Coffee looking at major lows in 2012

Coffee looking at major lows in 2012

I was recently invited to present my overall coffee outlook to an array of large hedge funds, coffee roasters and cash commodity firms via a conference call format on March 8. The call was hosted by KeyBanc Capital Markets and their brilliant food industry stock analyst Akshay Jagdale.

Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates

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Date	1 mo	3 mo	6 mo	1 yr	2 yr	3 yr	5 yr	7 yr	10 yr	20 yr	30 yr
03/01/12	0.07	0.08	0.13	0.18	0.30	0.43	0.89	1.44	2.03	2.80	3.15
03/02/12	0.06	0.07	0.12	0.17	0.28	0.41	0.84	1.38	1.99	2.77	3.11
03/05/12	0.07	0.08	0.14	0.17	0.31	0.43	0.87	1.40	2.00	2.78	3.13
03/06/12	0.06	0.08	0.13	0.17	0.30	0.40	0.83	1.35	1.96	2.73	3.08
03/07/12	0.06	0.08	0.14	0.18	0.30	0.42	0.85	1.37	1.98	2.76	3.12
03/08/12	0.07	0.08	0.14	0.18	0.32	0.44	0.89	1.41	2.03	2.82	3.18
03/09/12	0.06	0.09	0.13	0.18	0.33	0.46	0.90	1.43	2.04	2.83	3.19
03/12/12	0.05	0.09	0.15	0.18	0.33	0.47	0.92	1.43	2.04	2.82	3.17
03/13/12	0.06	0.08	0.15	0.20	0.35	0.51	0.99	1.52	2.14	2.92	3.26
03/14/12	0.08	0.09	0.15	0.21	0.40	0.60	1.13	1.69	2.29	3.08	3.43
03/15/12	0.08	0.08	0.15	0.21	0.37	0.56	1.11	1.67	2.29	3.08	3.41

Thursday Mar 15, 2012