Inter-market Analysis

Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries

 Do not get confused by the chart shown below! We are looking the intra-day correlations, where risk is definitely in positive mode with higher S&P, Gold and Oil, while Euro is lagging. That means that RISK-ON trade still did not cause any significant impact on FX pairs. Well, the reason for this are probably the US bond prices, which are also up. But in normal correlations you will tend to see higher RISK but lower US bond/higher US yields!! That is not the case today, as 10year yileds are down 1.6% at the moment.   The question is which market is correct? Well, if yileds will move higher and catch up the RISKY assets, then risk trade will remain in play for few more sessions, which USD will sold-off!

Euro Headed Below 1.3100 And Potentially To 1.3000

Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries

Euro moved sharply lower in this week from 1.3380 area, and closed below previous 1.3250 swing on a daily basis. And also because of the sharp bearish price action, we came out with an idea that recovery from 1.3000, labeled as wave (c) of 2 is finished now and that market will move even deeper in days ahead; ideally below 1.3000 within impulsive decline.

Cable Has Formed A significant Top At 1.6060

Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries

Cable reversed lower from 1.6060 mark where ending diagonal found a top as price slipped and closed below support line of the pattern. We also know that this type of diagonal is a trend-reversal pattern, so we will look for much deeper levels in days ahead. Ideally pair will retrace all the way down to 1.5600 (start of a pattern) once wave (4) swing at 1.5844 is taken out!

NY coffee closes lower, cocoa and sugar gain

NY coffee closes lower, cocoa and sugar gain | Reuters

April 5 (Reuters) - Arabica coffee futures on ICE closed
lower Thursday in the face of a firmer dollar while the market
consolidated after the previous session's volatile moves.

U.S. cocoa futures settled up a shade in heavy volume,
consolidating after hitting a three-month low on Wednesday,
while raw sugar also meandered upward. 

The markets will be closed on Good Friday and will open late
at 7:30 a.m. EDT (1130 GMT) on Monday. 

2:05 PM      SETTLE    NET     PCT      LOW    HIGH  CURRENT
                       CHNG    CHNG                       VOL 

 Sugar MAY     24.58   0.16    0.7%    24.35   24.73   43,373
 Sugar JUL      23.7   0.16    0.7%    23.47   23.83   40,766
 Cocoa MAY      2085      2    0.1%    2,068   2,132   19,992
 Cocoa JUL      2108     -1   -0.1%    2,094   2,150   14,933
 Coffee MAY      183  -1.75   -1.0%   180.95  185.00   14,350
 Coffee JUL    185.5  -1.85   -1.0%   183.45  187.60    9,042 

TOTAL MARKET              VOLUME 

 CURRENT   30D AVG  250D AVG

 ICE SUGAR      121,422   109,973    90,613
 ICE COCOA       41,234    21,523    19,419
 ICE COFFEE      29,868    22,404    20,233

Paulson Gold Fund Said to Fall 13% as Mining Stocks Slump

Paulson Gold Fund Said to Fall 13% as Mining Stocks Slump - Bloomberg

Paulson & Co.’s Gold Fund lost 13 percent in March, according to a person with knowledge of the returns, as investors sold off bullion and mining stocks such as AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. slumped.  The losses leave the fund, which can buy derivatives and other gold-related investments, down 6.5 percent since the start of this year, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the fund is private. Paulson & Co., which manages $24 billion, is the largest individual holder of AngloGold Ashanti shares, and the second-biggest owner of NovaGold Resources Inc., both of which lost about 13 percent last month.

Nomura's Nordvig on Euro Break-Up Contingency Plan

Nomura's Nordvig on Euro Break-Up Contingency Plan - Video - Bloomberg


April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Jens Nordvig, a managing director of currency research at Nomura Holdings Inc., talks about Nomura's contingency plan for a potential breakup of the euro area. He speaks with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart. (Source: Bloomberg)

Traders Eye 45-Minute Window After Good Friday Report

Traders Eye 45-Minute Window After Good Friday Report - Bloomberg

Wedbush Securities Inc.’s Michael James will be up at 5:30 a.m. in Los Angeles tomorrow, even though equity markets are closed for a holiday and he doesn’t have to work. The reason for the early wake-up: jobs.
While stock markets around the world are shut for Good Friday, the Labor Department will publish its monthly employment report at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Equity traders will have 45 minutes to react, as trading of futures linked to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average will continue until 9:15 a.m. on CME Group Inc. (CME)’s Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

BlueGold Hedge Fund to Liquidate, Return Money to Clients

BlueGold Hedge Fund to Liquidate, Return Money to Clients - Bloomberg

BlueGold Capital Management LLP, the $1 billion energy hedge fund co-founded by Pierre Andurand, is liquidating after losing 34 percent last year.  The London-based fund will return about 98 percent of investors’ money after calculating asset values this month, Andurand, 35, and co-founder Dennis Crema said today in a letter to clients, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News. The firm didn’t give a reason for closing.

Soybeans Poised for Second Weekly Gain on Brazilian Crop

Soybeans Poised for Second Weekly Gain on Brazilian Crop - Bloomberg

Soybeans rose in Chicago, heading for a second weekly gain, on speculation global harvests may be lower than estimated as crop losses caused by drought worsen in South America, spurring demand for U.S. supplies.  Brazil’s soybean crop will probably reach 66 million metric tons, below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s official 68.5 million-ton forecast, agricultural attaché Jeff Zimmerman said in a report posted yesterday on the agency’s Foreign Agricultural Service website. The South American country is the second-largest producer after the U.S.

3 Ways to Profit from a Dollar Rally

3 Ways to Profit from a Dollar Rally - Forbes

Technical signals suggest the US dollar is close to making a significant turn, allowing traders and investors to use these ETFs to capitalize on the impending rally.  Bond yields rose again on Tuesday, and the technical action does favor higher rates over the short term, if not the intermediate term. As I noted last week, there are some key levels to watch that would signal that a major bottom in yields, or top in the bond market, is in place.

Aussie $ and NZ $ To Merge? Discussing a Trans Tasman Currency

Aussie $ and NZ $ To Merge? Discussing a Trans Tasman Currency - Forbes

Perhaps the most absurd thing to cross my desk this morning was this report about how the Australians and New Zealand might merge their currencies to provide a single trans-Tasman currency block.  The productivity commissions of the two nations indicated a shared Trans-Tasman currency could reduce business costs but pointed to Europe as an example of possible downsides.

The Basics Of Currency Trading

The Basics Of Currency Trading

The investment markets can quickly take the money of investors who believe that trading is easy. Trading in any investment market is exceedingly difficult, but success first comes with education and practice. So, what is currency trading and is it right for you?

Market Sees Short Covering In Oil's Thursday Rise

OIL FUTURES: Market Sees Short Covering In Oil's Thursday Rise - WSJ.com

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Oil futures rose Thursday, with analysts and traders pointing to short covering ahead of the long weekend as the likely cause.  Futures got off to a choppy start but rose in tandem with stocks and other risk markets after the release of better-than-expected first-time jobless claims data in the U.S. But oil remained buoyant even as stocks turned south once again. Short covering can cause prices to rise because traders who were betting against the market must purchase contracts to close out the trade.  "I don't think this is buying per se coming into the market," said Stephen Schork, of advisory firm The Schork Group. "Volumes are generally weaker and we're not seeing any sort of sea change in open interest. I think this is just book squaring."

French bonds remain well-bid despite Spanish pressure

UPDATE 1-French bonds remain well-bid despite Spanish pressure | Reuters

(Reuters) - France was given the benefit of the doubt when investors demanded only marginally higher yields on French 5- to 15-year bonds at an auction on Thursday, a day after Spain's borrowing costs jumped at an auction amid renewed concerns about Europe's debt crisis.  France sold 8.4 billion euros of paper maturing in the mid- to long-term, known as OATs, near the top of its projected range of 7-8.5 billion euros, the Agence France Tresor debt management agency said.

Obama signs JOBS Act, hedge funds set free

Obama signs JOBS Act, hedge funds set free

New York, NY – April 5, 2012 – The Hedge Fund Association, an international organization that represents hedge funds, service providers and investors, today praised President Barak Obama for signing the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act and provisions in it that will allow hedge funds to advertise responsibly to investors through normal channels.  Emerging manager hedge funds are expected to benefit from the new law, according to the Hedge Fund Association (HFA).  "This is an action whose time has come,” said Mitch Ackles, president of the Hedge Fund Association. “Now that many hedge fund managers are required to register with the SEC, the strongest reason for the ban on hedge fund advertising has been removed. Second, information about hedge funds is ubiquitous because of the internet, websites and the media,” he added.

US corn stocks dwindle, but record crop looms

US corn stocks dwindle, but record crop looms

The March 30 quarterly stocks report confirmed that near-term US corn supplies were very tight. Inventories as of March 1 were reported at 6.009 billion bushels, 140.75 million bushels below the average trade guesstimate and close to 500,000 million bushels below stock levels the same time last year. The March USDA crop report estimated ending stocks as a percentage of consumption at 6.2%, already the lowest level since 1995-96. If disappearance continues at this pace through the end of the marketing year, the carryover would be the lowest in modern history.

US natural gas supplies grew last week

US natural gas supplies grew last week

NEW YORK (AP) — The nation's natural gas supplies rose last week, the government said Thursday.  The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas in storage grew by 42 billion cubic feet to 2.479 trillion cubic feet for the week ended March 30.  Analysts expected a rise of 33 billion to 37 billion cubic feet, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.  The inventory level was 60.5 percent above the five-year average of 1.545 trillion cubic feet, and 55.7 percent above last year's level of 1.592 trillion cubic feet, according to the government data.  Natural gas futures fell 1 cent to $2.1350 per 1,000 cubic feet in New York.

Gold traders bearish for first time in 2012 on Fed

Gold traders bearish for first time in 2012 on Fed
 
April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Gold traders are bearish for the first time this year after the Federal Reserve signaled it may refrain from more monetary stimulus and jewelers in India, the world’s biggest bullion market, shut to protest a new tax.  Fifteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to decline next week and five were neutral, the highest proportion since Dec. 30. Imports by India may have plunged as much as 81% in March and could drop 40% in the second quarter, the Bombay Bullion Association said April 2. Indian jewelers, who sell more gold than Australian and U.S. mines produce in a year, were closed today for a 20th day.