UBS's Gradual Return to Respectability

HEARD ON THE STREET: UBS's Gradual Return to Respectability - WSJ.com

UBS's UBS +1.50% road to redemption has been longer and more accident-strewn than most. But the Swiss bank's first-quarter results suggest its restructuring is delivering the goods and the stock is once again something investors might want to own.   Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti can thank his wealth-management divisions for UBS's better-than-expected pretax profit of 2.2 billion Swiss francs ($2.4 billion) after adjusting for changes in the value of its own debt and other one-time items. The two businesses delivered a 24% increase in underlying pretax profit to 766 million francs over the quarter due to increased client activity and improved margins. They also pulled in another 10.9 billion francs of net new client money.

5 money moves a commodities bear is making now

5 money moves a commodities bear is making now - MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — To every commodities trader, there’s a time to plant and a time to reap.  This is harvest time, said commodities trader Peter Brandt, who sizes up the climate bluntly: “Markets are getting set up to slam the speculator.”  Brandt has been buying and selling commodities for almost four decades. His Colorado Springs, Colo.-based company, Factor LLC, trades on behalf of and offers research to institutional and speculative clients.

Single Asian currency 'inevitable'

Single Asian currency 'inevitable' - ADB exec - The Philippine Star » News » Headlines

MANILA, Philippines - Asia's transition to a single currency is inevitable as the global financial market searches for international reserve currencies other than the United States dollar, economists said Thursday at the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) 45th annual board of governors meeting.  "It is a matter of time, not yes or no," Iwan Azis, head of ADB's Office of Regional Economic Integration said in a media briefing.

Independent Counsel for MF Global Is Sought

Independent Counsel for MF Global Is Sought - WSJ.com

A Republican member of the House Financial Services Committee is pushing for the Justice Department to turn over its investigation of the MF Global Holdings Ltd. collapse to an independent counsel, according to people familiar with the matter.  Rep. Michael Grimm, a first-term House member from New York, circulated the letter Wednesday in an effort to get other legislators to sign on. He is working to get more signatures in coming days before turning over the letter to Attorney General Eric Holder, one of these people said.

Women's Suits: The Perfect Fit Is Mostly in the Bust

Women's Suits: The Perfect Fit Is Mostly in the Bust - Businessweek

When Christina Wallace asks for your cup size, she’s not being invasive. The 28 year-old Michigander is co-founder and chief executive of New York-based Quincy, a new brand of women’s office wear that tailors clothing based on bra size and height rather than traditional size charts.

Natural Gas Futures Decline on Outlook for Moderate Weather

Natural Gas Futures Decline on Outlook for Moderate Weather - Businessweek

Natural gas futures in New York declined the most in almost two months on forecasts of moderating weather that may limit demand from power plants.  Gas slid 5 percent after WSI Corp. in Andover, Massachusetts, predicted mostly normal weather in the Midwest and Northeast through May 16. About 35 percent of U.S. gas demand comes from electricity producers, according to the Energy Department.

A Paradox: Avoid Correlation by Following the Trends

A Paradox: Avoid Correlation by Following the Trends | AllAboutAlpha: Hedge Fund Trends & Alternative Investment Analysis

 A common Wall Street adage runs, “the trend is your friend.” Skeptics sometimes add to that the words, “…until it isn’t.” Commonfund has issued a new white paper that illuminates both sentiments, in the course of contending that futures funds managed by Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) can play a valuable part within institutional policy portfolios.  In particular, the authors, from Commonfund’s Hedge Fund Strategies Group, seek to defend managed futures against the charge that they are invidiously opaque, a “black box.” CTAs got their start as vehicles for following trends (“taking positions and letting profits run while cutting losses short” as the white paper puts it) and this still remains their most common model type.  This subset of CTAs in particular, then, is much more transparent in their operations then its “discretionary, thematic counterparts.” CTAs are data driven, and the data by which they are driven is available to the rest of the world.

Oil looking for a pullback before moving higher

Oil looking for a pullback before moving higher

CLM12:

• Short Term Trends are bearish.
• Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 104.11. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 106.21 – 108.73.
• New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 106.43. Upside Target 80% achieved.
• June WTI Crude broke through April’s high on Tuesday as it cracked through the $106 threshold for the first time in 5 weeks, closing above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
• Look for WTI to have a mild setback early on Wednesday before moving higher up to the weekly objective of 108.22 covering the full weekly range of 4.34.
• Projected Daily Range: 1.53
• Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
• Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

Bullion Prices: How to Climb the ‘Golden Staircase'

Bullion Prices: How to Climb the ‘Golden Staircase' | Resource Investor

When UK subscriber John M. wrote in this week, he got right to the point.  Asked John: "What's happening to gold prices? Why are they dropping?"  For an answer, I speed-dialed Real Asset Returns Editor Peter Krauth – our resident expert on mining and precious metals.  Peter is based in Canada, which keeps him close to the natural-resource companies that proliferate north of the border. He gave me a detailed and insightful answer to John M.'s question.  And he recommended three ways to profit – including an ETF he says is perfect for first-time gold investors.

Nerds on Wall Street | Computational Finance

Computational Finance | Computational Investment Trading | Nerds on Wall Street | Computational Finance

“A computer does not substitute for judgment any more than a pencil substitutes for literacy. But writing without a pencil is no particular advantage.” – Robert McNamara.  The Journal of Portfolio Management (JPM*) is one of the more upscale investment management publications around. For $500 a year, you get four issues, nicely bound like oversize paperbacks, without any advertising. It’s a crossover between rigorous academic publications, like the Journal of Finance, and trade magazines, like Wall Street & Technology, that have shorter staff-written articles and lots of ads. On significant anniversaries, JPM assembles special issues with invited pieces from both academics and practitioners on relevant topics.

Comex Gold Ends Lower Amid a "Risk-Off" Trading Day in Market Place

Comex Gold Ends Lower Amid a "Risk-Off" Trading Day in Market Place - Forbes

Comex gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session lower Wednesday as investor risk appetite shrunk a bit due to fresh worries coming out of the European Union and on some fresh, weak U.S. economic data just released. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish daily posture for the precious metals Wednesday, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were lower. June gold last traded down $9.10 at $1,653.30 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $9.70 an ounce at $1,653.00.  July Comex silver last traded down $0.36 at $30.57 an ounce.

McClendon's Secret Hedge Fund Appears To Violate His Fiduciary Duty To Chesapeake

McClendon's Secret Hedge Fund Appears To Violate His Fiduciary Duty To Chesapeake - Forbes

Another day, another big, bad revelation about Aubrey McClendon. A tip of the hat to the seven Reuters’ reporters who uncovered this latest story on the $200 million hedge fund that McClendon and co-founder Tom Ward were running inside Chesapeake offices between 2004 and 2008.

BOJ May Fail to Achieve Inflation Target in 2013, Moody’s Says

BOJ May Fail to Achieve Inflation Target in 2013, Moody’s Says - Bloomberg

 he Bank of Japan (8301) is increasing its purchases of government debt because it probably won’t meet its inflation goal in 2013, Moody’s Investors Service said.  “It looks like the BOJ’s 1 percent inflation target won’t be hit,” Tom Byrne, Moody’s senior vice president in charge of Asia sovereign credit ratings, said to reporters in Manila today. “Hence the BOJ is increasing its asset-purchase program.”

Corn Set to Gain on Speculation China May Boost U.S. Purchases

Corn Set to Gain on Speculation China May Boost U.S. Purchases - Bloomberg

May 3 (Bloomberg) --Corn was poised to climb on speculation that China, the second-largest consumer, may boost purchases from the U.S. after drought cut the harvest in Argentina.  July delivery corn gained as much as 0.4 percent to $6.14 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after losing 3.6 percent in the past two days. It traded at $6.12 a bushel as of 11:58 a.m. Singapore time.

Treasury yields approach 3-month low on European slowdown signs

Treasury yields approach 3-month low on European slowdown signs

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury 10-year yields approached the lowest level in almost three months after a euro-area report showed manufacturing contracted in April, underpinning demand for the safest assets.

John Arnold closes Centaurus hedge fund after 10 years

John Arnold closes Centaurus hedge fund after 10 years

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- John Arnold, the hedge-fund manager who became a billionaire betting on natural gas prices, said he’s closing his Centaurus Energy Master Fund “to pursue other interests.”
“In the past 10 years, we have achieved more success than I could have hoped for or imagined,” Arnold said in a letter obtained by Bloomberg News. “We achieved outstanding returns for our investors -- often in the triple digits -- while having the discipline and rigor to stay true to our core investment focus.”

Oil prices drift lower after build in inventories

Oil prices drift lower after build in inventories

Quote of the Day - The best way out is always through.  ~ Robert Frost

With Europe and most of Asia closed on Monday all of the trading action was primarily centered in the US market. The big event of the day was the much better than expected ISM manufacturing data released mid-morning. The data surprised all especially after the lackluster PMI data out of the US the other day. The risk asset markets moved into a strong rally once the data was released But from mid-day on asset values spent the rest of the session slowly giving back a major portion of the gains from earlier in the day.

Chesapeake Energy's Stock Which Is Getting Whacked And These 10 Hedge Funds Have The Greatest Stake

Chesapeake Energy's Stock Which Is Getting Whacked And These 10 Hedge Funds Have The Greatest Stake - Business Insider

Top 10 Hedge Funds Losing on Chesapeake Energy

Here are the ten hedge funds with the largest stake in the natural gas and oil exploration and production company, according to the most recent 13F regulatory filing data compiled by Bloomberg. One thing to note is hedge funds only have to report their long holdings in 13F regulatory filings.

Millennium Management: ~1.66 million shares
Westchester Capital Management: ~1.49 million shares
Ivory Investment Management: ~1.45 million shares
Aletheia Research: ~1.3 million shares
Tetrem Capital Management: ~1.04 million shares
Samlyn Capital LLC: 803,300 shares
Tocqueville Asset Management: 700,995

DE Shaw: 700,995
BP Capital Management: 570,055
Two Sigma Investments: 503,370
T. Boone Pickens’ BP Capital owned more than 570k shares in Chesapeake, according to the most recent 13F.
Shares of Chesapeake Energy tanked Wednesday after missing analysts’ EPS estimates yesterday afternoon.
The stock was last down more than 13% in during mid-day trading.
Chesapeake Energy has come under a great deal of scrutiny recently.
Today Reuters’ came out with a bombshell investigation that CEO and chairman Aubrey McClendon was running a $200 million private hedge fund that traded in oil and natural gas, in addition to other commodities. Last month, Reuters reported that McClendon borrowed as much as $1.1 billion in loans against his stakes in Chesapeake oil and gas wells he received under the company’s “Founder Well Participation Program.”