Soybeans Rise as U.S. Predicts Plunging Inventory in 2013

Soybeans Rise as U.S. Predicts Plunging Inventory in 2013

Soybeans rose the most in more than two weeks after the U.S. forecast a 31 percent plunge in domestic inventories next year, as drought damage in South America boosts demand for supplies from the Midwest.
Reserves will drop to 145 million bushels (3.94 million metric tons) on Aug. 31, 2013, from an estimated 210 million this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 172 million bushels. U.S. exports will jump 14 percent to make up for smaller crops in Brazil and Argentina this year and rising global demand, the USDA said.

Oil, gold take hits for their own good

As of Thursday month to date, futures prices for gold GCM2 -0.52% have fallen over 4% and oil CLM2 -0.92% lost more than 7%, though an unexpected standout has been natural gas NGM12 -0.56% , which climbed nearly 9% so far this month.  The slowdown in China combined with uncertainty around a third round of quantitative easing has “brought the bull case for commodities into question and investors/traders are cutting down their exposure in response,” said Vedant Mimani, lead portfolio manager of the Atyant Capital Global Opportunities Fund, a precious metals-focused fund based in Miami.

Asian Stocks, Commodities Drop on JPMorgan Loss; Dollar Rises

Asian Stocks, Commodities Drop on JPMorgan Loss; Dollar Rises

Asian stocks fell, heading for the biggest weekly decline since November, while U.S. equity futures and oil dropped after JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s $2 billion surprise loss on synthetic credit securities underscored risks to global financial markets. Treasuries rallied for an eighth week, the longest winning streak since 1998.

Gold settles a tad higher as European worries ease

Gold for June delivery GCM2 -0.56%  advanced $1.30, or 0.1%, to end at $1,595.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.  “Gold is really lacking a theme in the marketplace,” said Adam Klopfenstein, an analyst with Archer Financial in Chicago. It does not move higher with equities, and it has been unable to catch flight-to-safety bids, which are going to the U.S. dollar and U.S. bonds, he said.  “Gold is really stuck,” and things are unlikely to change in the short term unless a steep, sustained fall for equity markets, he added.

Managed Futures Portfolio Diversification Opportunities Enhance returns and lower overall volatility.

Managed Futures - IASG

The term managed futures describes an industry comprised of professional money managers known as commodity trading advisors (CTAs) These trading advisors manage client assets on a discretionary basis using global futures markets as an investment medium. Trading advisors take positions based on expected profit potential.

Euro snaps 8-session drop, up from 3-1/2-month low

Euro snaps 8-session drop, up from 3-1/2-month low | Reuters

(Reuters) - The euro gained against the dollar on Thursday, snapping eight straight sessions of declines and bouncing from its recent 3-1/2-month low as stress in Spanish debt markets eased and Greece secured funds to repay its bondholders.

Drop in jobless claims eases labor market fears

Drop in jobless claims eases labor market fears | Reuters

(Reuters) - The number of Americans submitting new applications for jobless benefits edged down last week, easing concerns the labor market was deteriorating after surprisingly weak employment growth in April.  Another report on Thursday showed the U.S. trade deficit widened in March, with exports surging to a record high and a rise in imports highlighting the economy's firming underlying demand.

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Drop as JPMorgan Reveals Losses

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Drop as JPMorgan Reveals Losses - Bloomberg  

U.S. stock futures fell as investors assessed a disclosure by JPMorgan (JPM) Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, that it had a $2 billion trading loss after positions in credit securities proved riskier than expected.  JPMorgan tumbled 6.7 percent after the close of regular trading as Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said the bank made egregious mistakes and that trading losses were “self inflicted.” Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. (C), Goldman Sachs (GS) Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley (MS) lost at least 2.3 percent.

Gold Bulls Weakest in Month as Investors Buy Dollar

Gold Bulls Weakest in Month as Investors Buy Dollar - Bloomberg

Gold traders are the least bullish in five weeks after the metal erased almost all of this year’s gains, as political turmoil in Europe and mounting optimism about the U.S. economy drives investors to favor the dollar.
Fourteen of 32 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and six were neutral, the lowest proportion since April 6. Bullion futures slid to a four-month low of $1,578.50 an ounce this week and hedge funds are making their smallest bet on a rally in about three years, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

EUR/USD Forecast May 9, 2012, Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Forecast May 9, 2012, Technical Analysis - May 9 12 2:31 EDT - ForexTV.com

The EUR/USD pair has been very stubborn recently, and the Tuesday session proved to be more of the same. The 1.30 level is a well-known support area, as every time the markets have approached it, the bulls came back in to push prices back above that level. The line is also the bottom of a massive descending triangle, and Tuesday saw the level being tested again broken above, and retested in the waning hours.

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis May 10, 2012, Forecast - May 9 12 12:36 EDT - ForexTV.com

The Energy Administration issues weekly energy updates and reports. This weeks report contained the following information. To read the entire report, you can find it on the EIA website.  Very mild weather over the past winter contributed to natural gas working inventories that continue to set new record seasonal highs, with April 2012 ending at an estimated 2.61 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 46 percent more than the same time last year. EIAs average 2012 Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast is $2.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a decline of $1.55 per MMBtu from the 2011 average spot price. EIA expects that Henry Hub spot prices will average $3.17 per MMBtu in 2013.  EIA expects electricity generation from coal to decline by about 15 percent in 2012 as generation from natural gas increases by about 24 percent. EIA forecasts that electricity generation from coal will increase by about 4 percent in 2013, as projected coal prices fall slightly while natural gas prices increase, allowing coal to regain some of its power generation share.

RCM Commodity Update - Back in the Green

Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries

Treasuries: In early dealings it appeared Treasuries were rolling over but to the tick 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes bounced off their 9 day MAs. Continue to use those levels as your pivot point; in June bonds at 143'17 and in notes at 132'17. Long dated Euro-dollars closed below the 20 day MA as traders could continue to wade into these contracts willing to trail their stop down on a further depreciation.

Gasoline: More Demanding than Oil?

Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries
 
While oil price fell for a 6^th day in a row gasoline seemed to mount a rally. According to the Department Of Energy Gasoline demand improved last week but is it possible that demons is not quite as bad as the Energy Information agency seems to suggest! Well at least one person thinks so and that is no other than the Princess of Petrol Trilby Lundberg. Trilby the independent thinker that she is looking at her research and says that gasoline demand may not be so tepid after all.
Trilby points out that the demand figures from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration are at odds. The EIA reported that March demand fell 2% but data from the American Petroleum Institute actually showed an increase of 3% which is quite a difference.  In fact according to Trilby gas demand is probably stronger than that and in part may explain yesterday’s gasoline draw.

E-minis may have hit a bottom yesterday

E-minis may have hit a bottom yesterday

Gap down, final flag reversal, trending trading range day. Around bottom of four-month trading range so might bounce for week or two

Fortress to shut commodities fund after 13% loss this year

Fortress to shut commodities fund after 13% loss this year

May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Fortress Investment Group LLC, the first publicly traded private-equity and hedge fund manager in the U.S., said it will liquidate its $500 million commodities fund run by William Callanan after losing almost 13% in the past four months.  The Fortress Commodities Fund LP, which declined 4.2% last month, will shut on or around May 23 and money will be returned to investors, New York-based Fortress said in a May 8 regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Euro rises from 3-month low on easing of Greece debt crisis

Euro rises from 3-month low on easing of Greece debt crisis

May 10 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose from a three-month low as Europe’s bailout fund confirmed that aid to Greece had been received and officials reported progress forming a government, easing concern the nation will leave the monetary union.  The shared currency ended eight days of losses against the U.S. dollar, matching the longest losing stretch on record, after a European Commission official said Greece’s financial “needs are covered.” Greece’s socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos said he saw the first “good omen” in four days of attempts to form a coalition government and avert a new election. Higher-yielding currencies advanced as U.S. jobless claims fell, boosting demand for risk.

Treasury yields rise from three-month low before 30-year auction

Treasury yields rise from three-month low before 30-year auction  

May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell, with yields climbing from three-month lows, as the government prepared to sell $16 billion of 30-year securities in the third auction of coupon- bearing debt this week.