Questioning The Pop In Corn Yields

Questioning The Pop In Corn Yields - Seeking Alpha

Another Seeking Alpha contributor has written in USDA Report Bearish For Corn about the rise in the USDA's yield estimate to 166 bushels per acre for the coming corn crop in the US.
The USDA gives this estimate based on :

Projected corn yield based on the simple linear trend of the national average yield for 1990-2010 adjusted for 2012 planting progress.

This estimate, if it proves accurate, would be an all time high for US corn crop yields. Below is a table and chart of the data the USDA used to arrive at this forecast, which is available for download here.

Gold! Haiti eyes potential $20 billion boom

Gold! Haiti eyes potential $20 billion boom - TODAY News - TODAY.com

TROU DU NORD, Haiti — Its capital is blighted with earthquake rubble. Its countryside is shorn of trees, chopped down for fuel. And yet, Haiti's land may hold the key to relieving centuries of poverty, disaster and disease: There is gold hidden in its hills — and silver and copper, too.

Iran Oil Exports Fall as Sanctions Tighten

Iran Oil Exports Fall as Sanctions Tighten - WSJ.com

LONDON—Iranian crude oil exports fell sharply again in April and could be down by as much as one million barrels a day this quarter as many countries reduce imports ahead of sanctions that come into effect on July 1, the International Energy Agency said Friday.  Iran's oil production remained steady at 3.3 million barrels a day in April, but 15% to 25% of that oil wasn't sold and had to be pumped into floating tanker storage, the IEA said, a process the country could continue for a couple of months before filling its storage and having to shut down fields, according to David Fyfe, head of the IEA's oil markets division.

VIX Focus May Do Investors More Harm Than Good

VIX Focus May Do Investors More Harm Than Good: Chart of the Day - Bloomberg

Investors seeking to judge what’s ahead for U.S. stocks may be better off without a “VIX fix,” according to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc.’s chief U.S. market strategist.  The VIX, the most widely followed gauge of market volatility, “has not been a great predictive indicator for future stock-price direction” as a rule, Levkovich wrote in a May 4 report.

Investors hedge against losses as Europe fears resurface

Investors hedge against losses as Europe fears resurface | Reuters

(Reuters) - The resurgence of the euro zone's debt woes as a dominant force in the U.S. equity market has sparked a flurry of cautious bets in the options market as investors brace for more uncertainty.

Buy Puts on Gold ETF to Protect From Losses

Buy Puts on Gold ETF to Protect From Losses - Barrons.com

Gold has been a store and a protector of wealth for millennia, which has prompted people all over the world to buy gold coins and bullion. Add to that the phenomenal success of the SPDR Gold Trust (known best by its ticker, GLD), which has burgeoned to become the second-largest exchange-traded fund with over $67 billion in assets, and gold bulls have been rewarded with a decade-plus run.

Sell the VIX Short to Profit From Others' Fear

Sell the VIX Short to Profit From Others' Fear - Barrons.com

Fear is good business on Wall Street. For starters, fear helps to encourage impulsive and emotional decisions on the part of retail and institutional investors alike. It is contagious, capable of spreading extremely quickly and can sometimes appear to be unbounded.   Fear also has been responsible for the development of a wide range of structured products tailored for institutional investors who wish to protect principal, minimize volatility and take other steps to counteract potential risks. The ugly side of fear is that it impels many people to sell at the bottom and wait to get long until markets are near a top. 

CFTC BASE METALS: Bearish Bets On Copper Rise

CFTC BASE METALS: Bearish Bets On Copper Rise - WSJ.com

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--New bearish bets by managed funds on Comex copper futures and options exceeded new bullish bets by these traders during the week ended May 8, according to weekly data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  Hedge funds and other speculative traders added 1,946 long contracts, or bets on higher prices, and 2,072 short contracts, or bets on lower copper prices.  This took their net long position to 15,456 contracts, from 15,582 long contracts a week earlier.  The net position is the difference between the number of long and short contracts held by traders in the category. Changes in the net position are seen as indicators of shifts in trader sentiment.

Hedge Funds Profit as J.P. Morgan Sees Losses

Hedge Funds Profit as J.P. Morgan Sees Losses - Deal Journal - WSJ

For a group of hedge funds and other traders, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s sudden $2.3 billion trading loss means big profits, according to people familiar with the matter.

Firms such as BlueMountain Capital Management LLC and BlueCrest Capital Management LP each scored gains of about $30 million, according to people familiar with the matter. Representatives for the firms declined to comment.  One trader elsewhere estimated that well more than a dozen firms, including his, as well as traders at banks also profited by taking the other side of J.P. Morgan’s trades.

Spain Fails to Take Banking Bull by the Horns

HEARD ON THE STREET: Spain Fails to Take Banking Bull by the Horns - WSJ.com

Another missed opportunity. Four years into the crisis, Spain's failure to deal with the weaknesses in its banking system has become a threat to global financial stability. There is no great secret over what is required: Madrid only had to look to the experience of the U.S., U.K. and Ireland, among others, to see this crisis wouldn't end until Spanish banks were forced to write down toxic real-estate exposures to realistic levels and plug any capital shortfalls with equity. Yet for the second time in a little over two months, Madrid has produced a plan that looks short of the mark.

More on What Beached the London Whale: Credit Indices

More on What Beached the London Whale: Credit Indices - MarketBeat - WSJ

J.P. Morgan’s blown trade, and its $2 billion bill, has everyone’s attention. At its core was a bet on an abstruse corner of the credit market. Here’s a quick guide to the credit indices that beached the London Whale.

The J.P. Morgan Loss A Hedge or a Bet? Trade Highlights Ambiguity in Volcker Rule

Regulators in the U.S. and U.K. are examining what went wrong, who is responsible and whether J.P. Morgan should have told investors about the losses sooner, according to people familiar with the matter.

Bank Order Led to Losing Trades

Bank Order Led to Losing Trades - WSJ.com

J.P. Morgan Chase JPM -9.28% & Co. told traders several months ago to make bets aimed at shielding the bank from the market fallout of Europe's deepening mess. But instead of shrinking the risk, their complicated bets backfired into losses of as much as $200 million a day in late April and early May, people familiar with the situation said.

Treasury Bonds Post Longest Weekly Winning Streak Since 1998

Treasury Bonds Post Longest Weekly Winning Streak Since 1998 - WSJ.com

NEW YORK(Dow Jones)--A flight to safety boosted Treasury bonds Friday, extending the market's weekly winning streak to the longest in nearly 14 years.  The benchmark 10-year note's yield, which moves inversely to its price, posted its eighth consecutive weekly decline, the longest stretch since October 1998. The yield, a benchmark to set interest rates for U.S. consumer and corporate loans, now trades less than 20 basis points from a historic low set in September.  The falling yield, a boon for the U.S. government, underscores rising anxiety over the global economic outlook that has been pushing investors to focus on preserving capital even as Treasury yields adjusted for inflation handed them negative returns.

How to Beat the Odds at Judging Risk

How to Beat the Odds at Judging Risk - WSJ.com

Most of us have to estimate probabilities every day. Whether as a trader betting on the price of a stock, a lawyer gauging a witness's reliability or a doctor pondering the accuracy of a diagnosis, we spend much of our time—consciously or not—guessing about the future based on incomplete information. Unfortunately, decades of research indicate that humans are not very good at this. Most of us, for example, tend to vastly overestimate our chances of winning the lottery, while similarly underestimating the chances that we will get divorced.

Weekly Round-Up: Global Industrial Decline, European Woes Bog Down Commodities

Feature Articles | Resource Investing News

Commodities are lower across the board as Europe's financial situation continues to worry investors and industrial production in both China and India declines more than expected. Energy and base metal demand are expected to remain sluggish, while a rise in the greenback is keeping investors from shoring up gold.

Hedge funds slash $18 billion in commodities; oil hit most

Hedge funds slash $18 billion in commodities; oil hit most | Reuters

(Reuters) - Hedge funds and other money managers slashed their bullish bets on commodities by 20 percent, or nearly $18 billion, as prices fell to four-month lows last week, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.