Bearish oil may not find support until $81

Bearish oil may not find support until $81

CLN12:

• Short Term Trends are bearish.
• Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
• New contract lows made on Thursday @ 89.28. Intermediate Downside Target over 100% achieved.
• July WTI Crude broke through the $90 threshold on Wednesday as it stopped just a few ticks shy of breaking the November lows @ 89.17 before rallying after the pit-session up near the day’s mid-range.
• WTI has now lost more than $17 in the past three weeks and although the Intermediate Term downside objective has now been achieved, with all current trends still very bearish, this market may continue lower towards the major-term support @ 81.40.
• Projected Daily Range: 2.25
• Projected Weekly Range: 5.63
• Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

Treasuries gain as Spanish finances add to European debt concern

Treasuries gain as Spanish finances add to European debt concern

May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose amid concern the European debt crisis will worsen as Spain’s regional governments are said to be struggling with finances, stoking demand for government debt.

The World's 50 Highest-Paid Athletes

Full List: The World's 50 Highest-Paid Athletes - The World's 50 Highest-Paid Athletes - Forbes.com

Our athlete earnings totals are derived from salaries, bonuses, prize money, appearance fees, licensing and endorsement income in the 12 months ending May 1. We do not deduct for taxes or agents' fees. This year's 50 highest-paid athletes earned $1.4 billion, or $28 million on average.

The Forbes Fab 40: The World's Most Valuable Sports Brands

The Forbes Fab 40: The World's Most Valuable Sports Brands - Forbes

 The Forbes Fab 40 is for people interested in quantifying brand value using numbers and math. Using our proprietary data base and methodology, the Fab 40 values the top 10 names in sports in four distinct categories: athletes, businesses, events and teams. Our previous two renditions of the Forbes Fab 40 can be found here and here.

Top 10 Influencers in The Business of Sports

Top 10 Influencers in The Business of Sports - Forbes

The power of sports is strong at the societal level as well. The ancient Greeks used the Olympics to keep a truce among their warring city-states. A majority of the planet slows down to watch the modern Olympics, the World Cup and the Super Bowl in the U.S.

How Star Athletes Deal With Retirement: Financial Lessons

How Star Athletes Deal With Retirement: Financial Lessons - Forbes

To quote pro golfer Annika Sorenstam, “I didn’t grow up really rich or especially poor but I was taught to respect money.”  She remembers her economic status as a child, noting, “Yes, I had to share my first set up golf clubs with my sister; I got the odd number clubs and my sister (who now works for Annika’s golf academy) took the even ones.”

Venoco Chief Seeks To Grab California Oil Fields From Shareholders. Will They Let Him?

Venoco Chief Seeks To Grab California Oil Fields From Shareholders. Will They Let Him? - Forbes

On June 5, shareholders of oil company Venoco will vote on whether on not they want to allow Chief Executive Tim Marquez to buy the 49.5% of shares he doesn’t already own for roughly $400 million. Approval of Marquez’ $12.50 a share buy-out offer requires the votes of “a majority of the minority” of shareholders. So will they, or won’t they?

As Crude Oil Plunges, Is It Too Late To Sell?

As Crude Oil Plunges, Is It Too Late To Sell? - Forbes

Crude oil has plunged in the past month, with West Texas Intermediate down 13% to $89.90 and Brent Crude off 11% to $105.60.  In a report Thursday titled “Sell … sell it hard; or not?” analysts at Credit Suisse, led by Jan Stuart, asked whether it was too late to sell crude at these prices or if the downturn was only beginning.

How Asia Survives A Sinking Euro

How Asia Survives A Sinking Euro - Forbes

The European debt crisis continues unabated and no one — not on Wall Street, not on Bloomberg TV, not in Treasury or in the European Central Bank (ECB) know the outcome. At this point, it is best for investors to prepare for a worst case scenario. That would entail Greece leaving the euro, despite the smart money being on Greece remaining and being bailed out constantly by the ECB.

European Crisis: A Greek Exit Would Only Be The Start, Not The End

European Crisis: A Greek Exit Would Only Be The Start, Not The End - Forbes

Investors are excused if they’re experiencing a strange case of déjà vu.  Here we are again, staring down scary European headlines, a sagging equities market and wilting investor confidence. These days, it seems like this happens every few months or so.

Can Italy Save The EU? On Monti And Draghi, Eurobonds And Liquidity Injections

Can Italy Save The EU? On Monti And Draghi, Eurobonds And Liquidity Injections - Forbes

In a context of extreme market tension, European leaders disappointed markets that expected to be disappointed by just saying that they want Greece to remain in the EU.  More interesting was what came after, with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti telling a news station that German Chancellor Angela Merkel can be persuaded to accept Eurobonds, as a majority of European leaders back them.

Livestock Market Comments

Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries

The only hope for long position holders during June will be the supply side. Feedlot populations appear current in their sales and it may not be possible to get our normal 12-14% correction in cash cattle into late July or early August.

Will Greece Exit The Euro Currency?

Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries

 In recent weeks, the probability of Greece exiting the euro currency has vastly increased. It is possible that Greece could run out of funds by early July without additional financial support, increasing the possibility that Greece will leave the euro zone. The price of Greece's 10 year note fell below that of the note that it replaced in the recent sovereign debt restructuring two months ago, which is a clear indication that investors believe that there will be a default on the new Greek debt.   Fitch Ratings downgraded the sovereign debt of Greece deeper into junk status.  Greek equities declined to their lowest level in 20 years. Another round of elections in Greece will be held on June 17.

Crude options volatility rises as futures near $90 a barrel

Crude options volatility rises as futures near $90 a barrel

May 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude-oil options volatility rose for the first time in three days as underlying futures slipped below $90 a barrel.  Implied volatility for at-the-money options expiring in July, a measure of expected price swings in futures and a gauge of options prices, was 27.44 at 1:38 p.m., on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from 25.21 percent yesterday.  “We broke below $90 and everything is pretty well bid right now,” said Fred Rigolini, vice president of Paramount Options Inc. in New York. “Earlier we were seeing action in August $105 calls and July $100 calls.”

CFTC charges Chicagoan with $7.8M commodity fraud

CFTC charges Chicagoan with $7.8M commodity fraud

Washington, DC - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today filed a complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, charging Bradley Scott Schiller of Chicago, Ill., with solicitation fraud, misappropriating investors’ funds, and issuing false statements in connection with soliciting at least $7.8 million from at least six investors to trade commodity futures contracts in managed accounts.

Consumer sentiment in U.S. climbs to highest since October 2007

Consumer sentiment in U.S. climbs to highest since October 2007

May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence rose in May to the highest level since October 2007 as prices at the gas pump became less of a drag on household budgets.  The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment climbed to 79.3 from 76.4 the prior month. The gauge was projected to hold at the preliminary reading of 77.8, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Crude oil slide nearing decision point

Crude oil slide nearing decision point

$85 or Bottom!  Ok, I know it was just two weeks ago when I wrote $100 or go bust and last Friday when I wrote $90 or bust, but now I am saying that crude could be ending its slide. That is as long as $85 holds. You see it was just three weeks ago when oil was solidly above $100 a barrel. Many felt that $100 a barrel would hold, yet as I wrote on May 4, “The bullish oil price scenarios are giving way to what seems to be ever mounting supply. … so we have growing odds of a continuing price collapse.”

Gold advances on central bank buying and margin changes

Gold advances on central bank buying and margin changes

Another positive factor for gold is that the CME Group announced effective 29 May, initial performance bond requirements for speculators for gold futures will be cut from $10,125 to $9,113 while the maintenance margin will be cut from $7,500 to $6,750.

Think commodity fundamentals look grim? Check out the charts

Think commodity fundamentals look grim? Check out the charts | Reuters

(Reuters) - To a growing list of fundamental reasons to be worried about commodity markets, add one more: prices are threatening to crash below key chart levels that may unleash a new deluge of selling.

Wheat up on questions about dry weather affecting Kansas crop; other commodities mostly higher

Wheat up on questions about dry weather affecting Kansas crop; other commodities mostly higher - The Washington Post

Wheat prices rose 2.6 percent Friday as questions persisted about how much dry weather has affected the crop in Kansas.  The gain capped what has been a wild month for wheat. In the past two weeks, wheat prices have climbed to a high for the year and nearly hit a 2012 low, largely because of weather issues. Wheat for July delivery ended up 17 cents Friday at $6.80 per bushel.

Euro Touches 22-Month Low Amid Spain's Funding Plea; Real Rises

Euro Touches 22-Month Low Amid Spain's Funding Plea; Real Rises

May 25 (Bloomberg) -- The euro touched its lowest level since July 2010 against the dollar amid concern Spain's regional governments may lose access to capital markets.  The shared currency erased earlier gains against the dollar and yen after Catalan President Artur Mas repeated his call for Spanish central government to help regions access funding at a briefing with reporters today in Madrid. Brazil's real rose against all its most-traded counterparts as the central bank said it will offer currency-swap contracts at auction.

Commodities are Wounded, But Far From Dead

Greece is frozen in a political stalemate. Youth unemployment is running at over 50%. And there has been a $1 billion run on Greek banks.  From near and afar, there appears to be no easy way out, especially now that the euro zone is heading back into a recession.  It's times like these when investors pour into the US dollar for its "perceived safety."  With commodities priced in US dollars, this spike in the greenback has sent commodities – including gold prices– into a tailspin since early March.  That has many doubters asking: "Has the commodities super-cycle ended?"  It's a reasonable question considering the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) is back down to levels it last saw in September 2010.  What's more, gold prices have backed off to near $1,500/oz., and oil prices have fallen from $110 to $90/barrel. But as you'll see, the commodities coin does have another side...

Euro Falls Again vs. Dollar

The euro weakened for a fourth day against the dollar amid concerns about a potential Greek exit from the currency.  The common currency has been hammered for weeks, plunging more than 5% against the dollar this month and touching a 22-month low on Friday as doubts emerged about Greece's ability to form a government willing to adhere to European Union-mandated austerity measures.  An election is scheduled for June 17, following a May 6 vote that failed to produce a governing coalition.

Soybeans jump on upcoming hot, dry weather

Corn futures are trading mixed at midsession. The July contract is down slightly while deferreds are holding steady. Corn futures are seeing added support as high temperatures are forecasted across the U.S. Midwest and Southeast this weekend. It is expected that corn and soybean crops will see some damage as a result of the high temperatures. However, gains are being limited by economic situation in the European Union.

Fed cattle prices dip slightly

USDA’s latest Cold Storage report said there were 517.5 million pounds of beef in cold storage at the end of April. That is up 2.9% from the month before, up 16.8% from a year ago, and the most of any month since December 2006. USDA says 96% of corn acres had been planted by May 20. That compares to an average of 81% planted on that date and 75% planted on May 20, 2011. The first condition report of the year says 77% of the corn crop is in good or excellent condition. The Crop Progress report says 76% of the soybean crop was planted by May 20 compared to an average of only 42% on that date.

Replacements to decline this summer Cattle News

Compared to last week, offerings of calves and yearling feeder cattle sold steady to 3.00 higher, with several auctions reporting calves and yearlings selling 5.00-6.00 higher. In the south feeder cattle traded mostly steady to 2.00 higher. Demand remains good for feeders, best on yearlings although the Board this week overall failed to respond to the bullish Cattle on Feed Report last week. Direct feeder cattle trade in Texas and Kansas was 2.00-5.00 higher. On Wednesday in Bassett, NE 174 head of steers weighing 930 lbs sold for 144.25, and 184 head of steers with a weighted average weight of 857 lbs sold with weighted average price of 151.67. As we go through the summer months we would expect lower numbers and replacements to continue.

Corn, Soy Prices After Harvest Rise; Wheat Futures Gain

The price of corn and soybeans after this year’s harvest rose on speculation that hot, dry weather will increase stress on crops in the U.S., the world’s biggest producer. Wheat advanced on signs of improving export demand.  The lack of rain will deplete soil moisture for most fields from Arkansas to Ohio during the next five days before cooler weather and light showers return by May 30, Global Weather Monitoring said in a report. Rainfall will be restricted by low humidity and dry subsoil, increasing potential crop stress, the private forecaster said.  “The forecasts are still saying it will be warmer and drier than normal, and that reduces selling interest,” Jason Roose, a broker and market analyst for U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa, said in a telephone interview. “Weather will be the main focus for the next several months.”  Corn futures for delivery in December, after the harvest, rose 1.2 percent to $5.21 a bushel at 10:51 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. The contract for July delivery, the most actively-traded and widely-held, advanced 0.2 percent to $5.7975, after gaining as much as 1.9 percent.

May 22, 2012 Current Commitments of Traders Charts

Current Commitments of Traders Charts

Based on CFTC weekly report.
(Weekly as of October 2000.)
24 May 11 - 22 May 12

U.S. Stocks Fall as Spanish Debt Overshadows Economy

U.S. stocks fell, snapping a four-day rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as concern about Spain’s finances tempered optimism with data showing American consumer confidence rose to the highest since 2007.  Commodity, industrial and financial shares had the biggest losses in the S&P 500 among 10 groups. Boeing Co. (BA), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) slid at least 1.2 percent. Facebook Inc. (FB) slid 4.5 percent, following a two-day gain.  The S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent to 1,318.98 at 2:29 p.m. New York time. The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities is up 1.8 percent since May 18 and poised for the biggest weekly rally since March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 65.77 points, or 0.5 percent, to 12,463.98. Trading in S&P 500 companies was down 29 percent from the 30-day average at this time of day. The U.S. stock market will be closed on May 28 for a holiday.

Wheat Climbs on Demand for U.S. Supplies; Corn, Soy Gain

Wheat futures jumped the most in a week as declining world production boosts demand for supplies from the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter. Corn and soybeans for delivery after this year’s harvest rose.
World wheat output will fall 3.5 percent to 670.5 million metric tons in the season that begins June 1 from a year earlier, according to the International Grains Council. Last week, U.S. exporters sold the most grain in 14 months, the Department of Agriculture said yesterday. U.S. shippers are winning business from Russian suppliers whose domestic prices are too high, Arkady Zlochevsky, Russia’s grain union president, said in Moscow today.

Gold advances on central bank buying and margin changes

Gold futures fell for the first three days of this week by $43.50 or 2.7% before rebounding $9.10 to end at $1,557.50 on Thursday. Year-to-date, gold futures are down 0.6%, worse than S&P at +5.9% and Dollar Index at +2.7% but better than Stoxx at -3.8%, Euro/dollar at -3.3% and CRB Commodity Index at -7.7%.  Gold price retreated on Wednesday when European leaders took no new actions after the informal EU Summit. The Germans did not agree with the French on joint debt sales, the leaders did not change anything to relieve Spain and wanted Greece to stay in the Eurozone but stick to its budget cuts commitments. The next summit will happen on 28 June, 11 days after the new Greek election, tantamount to a Euro referendum. Economic news is also weak: European manufacturing PMI fell 0.8 point to 45.9 in April while German IFO index fell 2.5 points to 106.9. Weak China's flash PMI data points to manufacturing contraction for the seventh month. All these fuel dollar strength with the Dollar Index rising 1.3% for the week.

SOFTS-Raw sugar firms, robusta hits 8-1/2-month high

Raw sugar and arabica coffee futures hovered above 21-month lows and London robusta coffee nudged up to an 8-1/2-month high on Friday bolstered by a weaker dollar on Thursday as investors focused on a deepening euro crisis.   Cocoa futures on ICE firmed in light volumes, holding above Thursday's six-week low.

Grain markets trading higher Friday

Corn futures are trading 6 to 8 cents higher. Corn futures are trading higher on short covering after prices declined due to a disappointing export sales report. The decline in the value of the dollar is also lending support to the market. Weather remains bullish for the market as high temperatures are forecasted across the U.S. Midwest this weekend...