Oil sets fresh contract low, targeting $77

Oil sets fresh contract low, targeting $77

CLN12:

• Short Term Trends are bearish.
• Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 06/11/12 @ 81.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 06/11/12 @ 81.20. Downside Targets =  77.08 – 76.32
• July WTI Crude gapped higher in overnight trading on Monday before stopping just below last week’s high and then fell over $5 as it set fresh contract lows at $81.11.
• WTI should retrace some of Monday’s losses, up to $83.92, before running into additional selling pressure and moving lower to our downside objective of $77.08.
• Projected Daily Range: 3.11
• Projected Weekly Range: 6.60
• Projected Monthly Range: 11.27

Gold bugs defy bear-market threat with Soros buying

Gold bugs defy bear-market threat with Soros buying

Billionaire George Soros bought more in the first quarter and hedge-fund manager John Paulson held on to the biggest stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded product backed by bullion, Securities and Exchange Commission filings show. Some investors are refusing to capitulate even after failed elections in Greece drove the euro to a two-year low against the dollar and gold slumped as much as 21 percent in December from the record $1,923.70 set in September.

NFA takes emergency enforcement action against Louisiana firms

NFA takes emergency enforcement action against Louisiana firms

June 12, Chicago - National Futures Association (NFA) announced today that it has taken an emergency enforcement action against Level III Management LLC (L3M), Level III Trading LLC (L3T), and the firms' listed principal and associated person (AP),Bruce A. Gwyn. L3M is a commodity pool operator and commodity trading advisor and L3T is an introducing broker. Both NFA Member firms are located in Metairie, Louisiana.

Treasuries fall as U.S. sells debt amid Fed stimulus speculation

Treasuries fall as U.S. sells debt amid Fed stimulus speculation

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell as the U.S. sold $32 billion of three-year notes and traders speculated that Federal Reserve officials may add to stimulus to keep the economic recovery from faltering.

MF Global customer advocate calls on Congress

MF Global customer advocate calls on Congress

The report states, “Without adequate changes to the regulatory regime governing FCMs, another MF Global-sized failure is not only possible, it is probable.”  It point out that half of the 116 FCMs reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as of March 2012, are dually registered as BDs and account for nearly 91% of all the customer property held by FCMs. And 80% of that property is concentrated in the top 10 firms, nine of which are publically traded. The report suggests this concentration in firms that are dually registered presents systemic risk.

SEC brings charges in $415M Ponzi scheme

SEC brings charges in $415M Ponzi scheme

Washington, D.C., June 12, 2012 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged 14 sales agents who misled investors and illegally sold securities for a Long Island-based investment firm at the center of a $415 million Ponzi scheme.

Asian Currencies Weaken, Led by Won, as Europe Optimism Fades

Asian Currencies Weaken, Led by Won, as Europe Optimism Fades - Businessweek
Asian currencies weakened, led by South Korea’s won and India’s rupee, as optimism a 100 billion euro ($125 billion) bailout of Spain’s banks will stem Europe’s debt crisis faded.  Yields on Spanish and Italian bonds rose yesterday ahead of auctions in Italy this week and elections on June 17 that may determine whether Greece stays in the euro. The MSCI Asia- Pacific Index (MXAP) of regional shares dropped 0.6 percent.  “It’s clear that investors don’t believe this small step will put an end to the Europe crisis,” said Tarsicio Tong, a foreign-exchange trader at Union Bank of Taiwan in Taipei. “The U.S. dollar will stay strong for a while.”

Euro inches higher, gains seen short-lived

Euro inches higher, gains seen short-lived | Reuters
The euro drifted higher against the dollar on Tuesday after three days of losses as risk aversion eased somewhat on gains in stocks and commodities and investors cashed in bearish bets on the single currency ahead of Sunday's Greek election. The euro's gains were capped by record high Spanish bond yields, reports of official preparations for a Greek exit from the euro zone, and uncertainty about the logistics of Spain's bank bailout. Rising skepticism over a 100 billion euro ($124.57 billion)bailout for Spain's banks pushed Spanish government bond yields to their highest since the euro was launched in 1999.

Thai Mills to Boost Refined Sugar Output as Premium Climbs

Thai Mills to Boost Refined Sugar Output as Premium Climbs - Bloomberg
Millers in Thailand, the world’s second-largest exporter, are increasing production of refined sugar after the premium over the raw variety soared, according to the country’s biggest shipper.  The refined premium climbed 62 percent in 2012, reaching the highest in almost a year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Demand from the Middle East and North Africa, combined with the end of the crop in the European Union and a delay to harvesting in top producer Brazil, are limiting supplies of the refined or white sweetener, according to Naim Beydoun, a broker at Rolle, Switzerland-based Swiss Sugar Brokers.  “Prices of white sugar are attractive, drawing some mills to buy raws to re-melt them into the white variety,” Piromsak Sasunee, chief executive officer at the Thai Sugar Trading Corp., said in an interview yesterday in Bangkok.  The refined price has also been bolstered by demand from Muslim nations before the fasting month of Ramadan, Piromsak said. Ramadan begins next month. White sugar was $142.83 a metric ton more expensive than raws by 11:21 a.m. London time. Yesterday the premium was $143.27 a ton, the most since July 1, according to the data.

U.S. Soy-Reserve Forecast Reduced on Smaller South America Crops

U.S. Soy-Reserve Forecast Reduced on Smaller South America Crops - Bloomberg
U.S. soybean inventories before this year’s harvest will be less than forecast a month ago as export demand increased after drought cut production in South America, the government said.  Reserves on Aug. 31 will total 175 million bushels (4.77 million metric tons), down from 210 million projected a month ago, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. The average estimate of 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News was 192 million bushels. Inventories before the 2013 harvest will fall to 140 million bushels from 145 million estimated a month ago, the USDA said.  “Soybean supplies are going to be extremely tight before the harvest,” Jerry Gidel, the feed-grain analyst for Rice Dairy LLC in Chicago, said before the report. “The U.S. crop will need more rain the next two months to ease concerns about declining supplies.”  Soybean futures for November delivery fell 0.1 percent to $13.3125 a bushel yesterday on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price has risen 10 percent this year on forecasts for reduced production in Brazil and Argentina, the two biggest producers after the U.S.

Wall Street bounces, takes cue from Spanish yields

Wall Street bounces, takes cue from Spanish yields | Reuters

Stocks continued to take their cues from Europe's troubled debt market on Tuesday, staging a comeback rally as volatile Spanish bond yields came off earlier highs.  Trading has been choppy this week as investors agonize over the effectiveness of the $125 billion bailout for Spanish banks agreed over the weekend.  Economically sensitive cyclical sectors that had sold off recently were the strongest performers, suggesting investors were seeing value in the market, while traders were looking for an oversold bounce as the S&P 500 slipped back toward 1,300.

NY coffee at 2-year low, cocoa jumps and sugar off

NY coffee at 2-year low, cocoa jumps and sugar off | Reuters
Arabica coffee futures slipped Tuesday to their lowest level in two years, raw sugar declined and cocoa futures charged higher as players fretted over the impact of the euro zone debt crisis on the softs complex...

Global Wheat Stockpiles Forecast Lower as Drought Curbs Crops

Global Wheat Stockpiles Forecast Lower as Drought Curbs Crops - Bloomberg
Global wheat stockpiles as of June 1, 2013, will be 1.3 percent lower than forecast a month ago as drought curbs production in countries including Russia and the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter, the government said.  Inventories at the end of the marketing year will total 185.76 million metric tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report, down from 188.13 million tons forecast on May 10. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected 185.06 million tons. Production will reach 672.06 million tons, compared with 677.56 million tons estimated last month, the USDA said.  Daily harvest reports from parts of Kansas, the biggest U.S. producer of winter grain, show that “yields were worse than they thought,” Dan Manternach, a wheat economist at Doane Advisory Services in St. Louis, said in a telephone interview before the report was released. “We’ve had reports out of several Black Sea countries where they’ve lowered their own export-availability forecasts.”  Wheat has gained 4.9 percent on the Chicago Board of Trade since May 10, when the USDA forecast that global supplies at the end of May 2013 will be 4.5 percent smaller than a year earlier.

Gold Climbs for Third Straight Session on Stimulus Bets

Gold Climbs for Third Straight Session on Stimulus Bets - Bloomberg
Gold gained for the third straight session in New York on speculation that policy makers will announce additional stimulus measures to boost growth, increasing demand for bullion as a hedge against inflation.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said he would support a variety of measures to generate faster job growth, underscoring his preference for more action. Spain has a “fair chance” to demonstrate its capacity to solve its banking woes after indicating it will require a bailout, Finland’s Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen said.

Oil Rises From Eight-Month Low on Stimulus Speculation

Oil Rises From Eight-Month Low on Stimulus Speculation - Bloomberg
Oil rose from an eight-month low on speculation that policy makers will do more to stimulate the economy and on expectations that U.S. inventories dropped.  Prices gained as much as 1.2 percent after Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said he would support a variety of measures to generate faster job growth. Government data will show oil inventories fell the most in almost five months last week, a Bloomberg survey of analysts showed.  “There is a lot of political will to try to stem the decline and no one wants to see things get worse,” said Jacob Correll, a Louisville, Kentucky-based analyst at Summit Energy Inc., which manages more than $20 billion in companies’ annual energy spending. “If refinery utilization rates stay high, then you are definitely going to see a decent-sized draw.”  Oil for July delivery gained 51 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $83.21 a barrel at 12:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after dropping to $81.07, the lowest intraday level since Oct. 6. Prices are down 16 percent this year.

Pink Slime No Brake to Beef Rally as U.S. Herd Contracts

Pink Slime No Brake to Beef Rally as U.S. Herd Contracts - Bloomberg
The U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to the smallest since three years before Ray Kroc opened his first McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) hamburger stand, reducing supply and raising prices even as domestic demand sinks to a two-decade low.  Beef output in the U.S., the biggest producer, will drop for a third year in 2013 after drought destroyed pastures, forcing farmers to cull herds to the smallest since 1952, government data show. Cattle futures traded in Chicago may rise to a record $1.33 a pound by year-end, according to Ron Plain, a livestock economist at the University of Missouri at Columbia who has advised the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

US stocks open higher despite unease over Europe

US stocks open higher despite unease over Europe - Markets - MiamiHerald.com
Stocks opened slightly higher even as investors appear increasingly uneasy about what comes next in Europe.  The Dow Jones industrial average was up 48 points at 12,459 after the first half-hour of trading Tuesday. Boeing, Bank of America and Alcoa had the biggest gains in the Dow.  Global markets could be repeating the trading pattern from Monday, when relief over a $125 billion lifeline to Spanish banks from the European Union turned into apprehension that the plan doesn't resolve deeper debt issues in other countries such as Greece or Italy...

Oil Futures Edge Up

Oil Futures Edge Up - WSJ.com
Crude-oil futures aimed higher Tuesday after three-consecutive losing sessions, pulled by broader markets despite signs of high supplies in the oil market.  Light, sweet crude-oil for July delivery recently traded 55 cents higher at $83.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange for July delivery traded 16 cents lower at $97.84 a barrel.  Rising stock markets along with gains in the euro against the dollar buoyed crude-oil futures, which have suffered along with other riskier assets amid Europe's debt crisis. ...